TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting whether one team will dominate the other specifically in the final quarter of an upcoming football game. It measures the point differential exclusively from the last quarter of play, ignoring any points scored before or after this period.
All markets resolve based solely on the point difference between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers during the 4th quarter of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Each market has a different threshold for the point margin required for resolution, ranging from over 1.5 points to over 10.5 points, with separate thresholds for both possible winners. If the winning team meets or exceeds the specified margin during regulation time of the 4th quarter, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All outcomes depend exclusively on points scored in the final quarter, with no consideration given to the overall game result or points from earlier quarters.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the game, or that new information hasn't yet been fully incorporated into sportsbook lines. It’s a good practice to compare both to form your own informed opinion.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the 4th quarter of the 49ers-Seahawks game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics reported by a trusted source. The outcome will be determined by the actual point difference between the two teams at the end of the 4th quarter, compared to the spread offered in the contracts traded on Kalshi. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the 49ers or the Seahawks would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news about team strategy or coaching decisions might also move the market. Finally, as the game progresses and real-time data becomes available, the market will react rapidly to the unfolding events on the field, leading to potentially large price swings.