TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:12 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many points are scored by both teams combined during a specific quarter of a football game. Bettors predict whether the total points will exceed various thresholds, offering different levels of difficulty and potential payout based on the expected scoring pace.
These markets resolve based on the combined points scored by both the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market has a different threshold for the total points that must be exceeded for a 'Yes' outcome. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the third quarter of play, with no points from any other quarter counting toward the resolution. The thresholds range from 3.5 points to 24.5 points, allowing participants to choose their level of risk and potential return based on their expectations for scoring in that specific quarter. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with or connected to the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. If a significant discrepancy exists between the implied probability in this market and sportsbook odds, opportunities for arbitrage may arise. However, it's important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking and can incorporate information—like potential injuries or weather forecasts—faster than some sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling shares at different price points. The price of a share represents the probability of the event occurring—in this case, the 3rd quarter total points being over a certain amount. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, if more traders sell, the price decreases. The market dynamically adjusts to reflect the evolving beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point total scored in the 3rd quarter of the 49ers-Seahawks game will be used to determine whether shares pay out $1 (for those who predicted the total would be over the threshold) or expire worthless. The official NFL game statistics will serve as the basis for verifying the final score, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the 49ers or Seahawks would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable for high or low scoring, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could shift traders' perceptions and affect the price. Even general public sentiment, as reflected in social media or sports news, can sometimes influence this market.