TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:45 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will win by a specific margin in the second half of an upcoming football game, including any overtime periods. The outcomes depend solely on the points scored after halftime, making the second half's performance the critical factor.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the specified football game. Each market corresponds to a different point threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if the winning team exceeds that threshold. Only points scored from the start of the second half through the end of regulation or overtime count toward the resolution. All markets are independent, and the governing league's official scoring determines the outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to predict the same outcome – the final second half spread between the 49ers and Seahawks – and often converge closer to the event’s start.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half of the 49ers-Seahawks game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. The market determines the probability of each outcome based on supply and demand for these contracts, not on any pre-defined model.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the second half of the 49ers-Seahawks game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official result will be sourced from established sports data providers and will be used to settle all outstanding contracts in this market. Traders will be able to see the final result and their payout amounts shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the 49ers or Seahawks would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s style of play, could also shift the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, or even significant shifts in public sentiment, could all contribute to price movements in this market before it resolves. Monitoring these factors can help traders assess potential opportunities.