TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:23 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate various scoring thresholds for the first quarter of an upcoming NFL game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks. Each threshold represents a different level of scoring performance, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of higher or lower point totals being achieved in the opening quarter.
All markets resolve based solely on the combined points scored by both teams during the first quarter of the designated NFL game. Each market has a specific numerical threshold, ranging from 3.5 to 24.5 points. If the total points scored by the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks exceed the respective threshold for a given market during the first quarter, that market resolves to "Yes." If the total points are equal to or below the threshold, the market resolves to "No." All markets are independent, meaning the outcome of one does not affect the others. Only points scored during the first quarter count, and the markets are not connected to any official league affiliations or endorsements.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This often leads to prediction markets being more accurate than sportsbook lines, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds can still be a useful point of comparison when evaluating potential trading opportunities in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the 49ers-Seahawks 1st quarter total. The price of each contract indicates the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. The goal is to create a market that accurately predicts the final result, with prices converging towards the true probability as the event draws nearer.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point total scored in the first quarter of the 49ers versus Seahawks game will determine the result. The official NFL game statistics will be used to verify the outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct total will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect totals will not. It’s important to monitor the game closely as it progresses to understand how the market is likely to settle.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the 49ers or Seahawks, particularly quarterbacks or key offensive players, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected scoring. Game-day reports on team strategies and starting lineups can also move the market. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and shift prices, especially if they indicate informed trading activity.