TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 6:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the point differential in the first half of an upcoming football game between two teams. Bettors can choose from various point spreads to wager on which team will dominate in the initial half of the match.
The event resolves based on the point differential in the first half of the designated football game. If the Seattle Seahawks win by exceeding the specified point spread, the corresponding 'Yes' outcome for that spread level is triggered. Conversely, if the San Francisco 49ers win by more than the specified spread, the respective 'Yes' outcome for their spread level is satisfied. Only points scored during the first half are considered; the final outcome depends strictly on whether the actual margin of victory meets or exceeds each defined threshold. The markets encompass a range of spreads for both teams, allowing participants to assess varying degrees of dominance.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts on Kalshi and at a sportsbook. However, it's important to remember that prediction markets and sportsbooks have different costs and risk profiles.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual first half spread will fall on that side of the spread. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. The market depth indicates how many contracts are available at different price points, giving you an idea of the potential liquidity and how easily you can enter or exit a position.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official first half spread result from the game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting the correct side of the spread will settle at 100, while those predicting the incorrect side will settle to 0. The final settlement will reflect the actual point difference at the end of the first half of the game between the 49ers and the Seahawks.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the 49ers or Seahawks, such as the quarterback or star running back, would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could affect trader sentiment. Public perception, as gauged by polls or expert analysis, can also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.