TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 5:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Sevilla will win its professional La Liga soccer game against Osasuna. Currently, Kalshi gives Sevilla a 78.0% probability of winning, according to its market prices. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the match as determined by the official result of the game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as defined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on the match itself, scheduled for October 26, 2026, as the final whistle will determine the outcome of this market.
The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Sevilla vs Osasuna professional La Liga soccer match originally scheduled for October 26, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. A 'Yes' outcome for each respective market occurs if the associated team wins or if the match ends in a tie. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following platform guidelines. The markets exclusively consider the regular time result, with no regard for postseason or playoff implications.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different set of information and incentives than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while Kalshi allows traders to directly assess the probabilities. This can lead to differences in implied probabilities, especially as new information emerges. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on expert analysis, this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially revealing insights that differ from traditional sources. It's common to see prediction market odds move in response to news or events that haven't fully impacted sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Sevilla vs Osasuna match. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards a fair value, representing the collective belief of the market participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Sevilla vs Osasuna match, as determined by official sources. The platform will verify the result against these sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be paid out according to the final contract prices at resolution. It's important to monitor official announcements regarding the match to stay informed about the resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, team formations, or changes in coaching staff for either Sevilla or Osasuna could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, general news related to team performance in other competitions or shifts in public perception could all contribute to price fluctuations. Monitoring sports news outlets and social media for updates relating to the teams involved is crucial for understanding potential catalysts.