TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which team will win the 2026 Chicago White Sox versus Cleveland Guardians Division Series in the Pro Baseball Playoffs. Currently, Kalshi gives a 56.0% probability to Cleveland winning the series, while Chicago has a 45.0% probability. The market will resolve based on which team advances from the series, as determined by official results from the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoffs. Keep an eye on the start of the Division Series, scheduled for October 18, 2026, as that will mark the beginning of the event window for resolution.
If Chicago WS wins the Chicago WS vs Cleveland Division Series in the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cleveland wins the Chicago WS vs Cleveland Division Series in the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, incorporating a profit margin, and may be influenced by public betting patterns. This market, however, represents the aggregated predictions of informed individuals who have ‘skin in the game’ – they are financially incentivized to be accurate. While both aim to predict the eventual winner, the dynamics driving the odds are distinct, and you may find differences in probabilities assigned to each team. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform traditional polls and, sometimes, even sportsbooks in predictive accuracy.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the World Series champion is verified against credible public reporting. The team that wins the final game of the World Series will be declared the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on the official results announced by Major League Baseball. Traders will be able to claim their winnings based on their positions in the market at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor the market leading up to the resolution date to understand the prevailing sentiment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major player injuries to key players on either the Chicago WS or Cleveland teams would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected performance during the regular season, particularly strong or weak showings against other contenders, will also influence trader sentiment. News regarding team strategy, pitching rotations, or managerial decisions could also move the market. Finally, any significant upsets in the playoff rounds leading up to the World Series will undoubtedly cause fluctuations in the probabilities assigned to each team.