TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 11:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the margin of victory in a playoff baseball series between two teams. Bets will pay out based on whether the winning team exceeds specific run differentials across the entire series.
All four markets resolve based on the final series outcome between New York Y and Tampa Bay in the 2026 ALDS. The first two markets require New York Y to win by more than 2.5 or 1.5 games respectively, while the latter two require Tampa Bay to win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 games respectively. A series win by exactly the listed spread results in void outcomes. Kalshi explicitly states no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on information or perspectives not fully captured by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market represents a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. It’s common to see differences emerge, particularly when there’s significant public interest or debate surrounding an event. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders to potentially find value in either market.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual series spread between the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays, as officially recorded by sports data providers. The final result will determine which contracts pay out, and the payout amount will depend on the price of the contract at the time of purchase. Traders should monitor official sources for the final series result to understand the resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries, pitching changes, or significant team performance shifts would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected weather forecasts affecting game schedules could also cause movement. Furthermore, major upsets in other games impacting playoff positioning, or even public sentiment shifts driven by media coverage, could all contribute to changes in the series spread. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.