TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 12:38 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an MLS soccer match between Seattle and Montreal, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It considers different thresholds for goal differentials to determine the result. The resolution depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential between Seattle and Montreal in their MLS match scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Four distinct outcomes are possible: Seattle winning by more than 2.5 goals, Seattle winning by more than 1.5 goals, Montreal winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Montreal winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each outcome corresponds to a specific market resolution condition. If none of these conditions are met—for example, if the match ends in a draw, if the winning margin is exactly 1.5 or 2.5 goals, or if the match requires extra time or penalties—the markets will not resolve to 'Yes' under any of the defined rules. The event explicitly excludes extra time and penalty shootout results from its resolution criteria. All markets are independent and resolve based solely on the stated goal differential thresholds without regard to other factors.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what is readily available to traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professionals, this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, but as the event approaches, the prediction market price often converges towards the sportsbook odds, though it can also diverge if new information emerges or if the crowd holds a different view. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed betting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the Seattle vs Montreal spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. The current price represents the probability that the spread will fall within a certain range, as determined by the market participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly efficient and informative market.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Seattle vs Montreal game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the relevant sporting authority. The final spread will be compared to the contract price on Kalshi to determine payouts to contract holders. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available and verified information to ensure a fair and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the Seattle vs Montreal spread market. News regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent game, could also shift expectations. Unexpected weather forecasts for the game day could also play a role, particularly if conditions favor one team's playing style over the other. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, perhaps driven by expert analysis or widespread betting activity, could impact the price of this market.