TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 12:34 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the Seattle vs Montreal professional MLS soccer game, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026, will end in a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Currently, Kalshi gives “Tie is the result” an 81.0% probability, while “Seattle wins” is at 14.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of this single game, as determined by the official result reported following the match. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve to Yes if Seattle wins, according to the resolution source, and the resolution date estimate is October 18, 2026, representing the day after the scheduled match.
If Seattle wins the Seattle vs Montreal professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. If Montreal wins the Seattle vs Montreal professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result of the Seattle vs Montreal professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different set of information and incentives than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while Kalshi allows traders to directly assess probabilities. This can lead to differences, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on team statistics and expert analysis, this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially identifying undervalued or overvalued outcomes as the event approaches. It's common to see the two diverge, reflecting differing perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they will bid up the price of the corresponding contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of event probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will reflect the final result of the Seattle vs Montreal match, as determined by official sources. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome. It is important to monitor official announcements regarding the event to understand the basis for resolution, as the platform relies on publicly available and verifiable information to determine the final result.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or unexpected weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Major announcements about team performance or key player availability will likely cause price fluctuations. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also influence trading activity. Furthermore, significant bets placed by informed traders could also move the market, especially if they signal access to non-public information or a strong conviction about the likely outcome of the Seattle vs Montreal match.