TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 12:33 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an MLS soccer match between Seattle and Houston, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It considers different threshold values for how many goals the winning team scores beyond its opponent. The result is determined solely by regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential in the Seattle vs Houston MLS match scheduled for October 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Four distinct outcome thresholds define resolution: Seattle winning by more than 2.5 goals, Seattle winning by more than 1.5 goals, Houston winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Houston winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any market resolving to 'Yes' occurs only if the specified team achieves the corresponding goal-differential margin of victory within regulation time. The event explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the MLS Governing League, noting that all trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially differing from those initially set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals expressing their true beliefs about the game’s outcome. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – you may observe shifts in both prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, though the timing and magnitude of these changes can vary. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities as event time approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Seattle vs Houston spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. A higher price suggests greater confidence in that outcome, while a lower price indicates less confidence. The current market price reflects the collective assessment of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Seattle vs Houston game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the relevant sporting authority. The final spread will be determined by subtracting the losing team’s score from the winning team’s score. Any adjustments made after the game’s conclusion, such as penalties, will be included in the final, official result used for market settlement.
Several factors could influence the Seattle vs Houston spread market. Key player injuries on either team would likely have a significant impact, as would any changes in the starting quarterback situation. Unexpected weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also shift expectations. Major news regarding team strategy or coaching decisions could also move the market. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi from informed traders could indicate shifts in sentiment and cause price fluctuations as we approach Oct 29, 2026.