TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 9:37 PM EST
Kalshi
Two markets track whether the Denver or Seattle defense scores at least one touchdown in their upcoming matchup. A touchdown occurs when the defensive team takes possession of the ball in the opposing team's end zone, commonly through an interception or a fumble recovery.
These markets resolve based on whether the specified team's defense scores one or more touchdowns during the full game, including overtime. Participation protections apply: if a player involved in the market participates in at least one play during the first half but not after halftime, the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the required touchdowns are scored. If the player participates in any play after halftime, the contract settles based on actual statistics. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. Passing touchdowns do not count toward these markets, and team defense selections settle on actual touchdowns without applying the player participation exception.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, as they aggregate the opinions of many informed traders. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market incentivizes participants to express their true beliefs. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes move faster to incorporate breaking news, such as key player injuries. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially in the early stages of trading, but as the event approaches, they often converge as more information becomes available and the market matures.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the total number of touchdowns scored. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe a higher touchdown total is likely, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest information and insights.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total number of touchdowns scored by both the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos during the official game will determine the result. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct touchdown total will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not. The final outcome will be publicly available on Kalshi.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks, running backs, or wide receivers on either team would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is predicted, could also influence the market, as it impacts passing and scoring opportunities. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments could also move the market. Finally, public perception and betting trends, as reflected in sportsbook odds, can sometimes create momentum and drive price changes in this market.