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Closed: Oct 15, 11:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi predicts whether George Holani will achieve at least 15 rushing yards in the Seattle versus Denver professional football game. Currently, the probability of George Holani exceeding 15 rushing yards is 99.0%. The market will resolve based on whether J.K. Dobbins records 40+ rushing yards in the game originally scheduled for Oct 15, 2026, as determined by the official game statistics. Keep a close watch on the game itself, as the market resolves the day after the originally scheduled game date of October 15, 2026, on October 16, 2026.
All markets resolve based on the total rushing yards recorded by designated players in the Seattle vs Denver professional football game scheduled for Oct 15, 2026. For each player market, if the athlete achieves the specified rushing yard threshold (e.g., 25+, 30+, etc.), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before kickoff. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly based on the actual rushing yards accumulated during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all player-specific yardage thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their books and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the aggregate beliefs of informed traders. As the event approaches, you may see convergence between the two, but prediction markets can sometimes offer more accurate probabilities, especially when significant information emerges after the sportsbook lines are established. It's common to find discrepancies, particularly regarding the perceived likelihood of specific outcomes in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals, and the price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a higher rushing yard total, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market price reflects the collective expectation of all participants regarding the final rushing yardage for Seattle and Denver. The price effectively represents the probability of that specific outcome occurring.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for the Seattle and Denver game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yardage, as recorded by the official game statistics, will determine the outcome of this market. No further action is required from participants once the game concludes; the platform will automatically settle the contracts based on the verified results. Traders will then receive or owe funds based on their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be significant, as would any changes to the teams' offensive strategies. Weather conditions on game day could also play a role, potentially favoring a run-heavy or pass-heavy approach. News regarding defensive matchups, specifically how well each team's defense is expected to defend against the run, will also be closely watched. Any late-breaking news impacting player availability or game plans could cause substantial shifts in this market.