TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 12:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This event involves predicting whether specific players will achieve certain reception thresholds in an upcoming football game. The outcomes are determined by actual game statistics, with protections in place for players who participate in the first half but not afterward.
All markets are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the opening kickoff unless the player records the required number of receptions. If the player participates in at least one play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Penalties that nullify a play do not count toward participation, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and all receptions counted include overtime plays.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market aggregates the opinions of many traders. Over time, prediction markets have demonstrated a track record of accuracy, sometimes exceeding that of traditional sportsbooks. However, sportsbook odds can be a useful data point when forming your own view on the likely outcome of the Seattle vs Denver game, and can be compared to the implied probabilities within this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people believe a particular reception total is likely, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective intelligence of traders participating on Kalshi.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key receivers or tight ends on either the Seattle or Denver teams would likely cause substantial movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect passing games, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about player matchups or coaching strategies could shift expectations and move the price of contracts in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on potential opportunities.