TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 11:39 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions achieved by specific players during an upcoming football game between Seattle and Denver. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts increase progressively with each reception, following a cubic scaling formula, while 'No' contracts pay the remainder of the contract value after the 'Yes' payout is applied.
Contracts pay out based on the exact number of official receptions recorded by the named player in the specified football game. Each 'Yes' contract pays an amount determined by applying a cubic scaling formula to the number of receptions, capped at 14 receptions with a maximum payout of $1.00. The formula used is floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official receptions. Each 'No' contract pays $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout, ensuring total returns for both positions sum to $1.00. Payouts are calculated separately for each player market, and the 'Yes' position resolves to a win if the player achieves any receptions up to the cap. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It's common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the total receptions in the Seattle vs Denver game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time view of expectations. The market’s efficiency is driven by the incentive for traders to accurately predict the outcome and profit from correctly priced contracts.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the total combined number of receptions by all players from both the Seattle and Denver teams will be tallied from official game statistics. The final result will be determined based on the official game data available following the conclusion of the game. The market will then settle to reflect whether the actual total receptions were above or below the threshold defined by the contracts traded on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or adjustments to team strategies could all impact expectations for the total receptions. Significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media discussions, could also lead to price movements. Unexpected developments in the days leading up to the game, such as a change in quarterback or a surprising defensive scheme, are likely to cause traders to reassess their positions and adjust the market accordingly.