TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 10:51 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. will record 2 or more receptions in the Seattle vs Denver Pro Football game. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to Mims Jr. achieving 2+ receptions. Resolution will be determined by whether Evan Engram records 2+ receptions in the game, as reported by official game statistics. Keep an eye on the game itself, scheduled for October 15, 2026, as the outcome will be resolved based on performance in that fixture, with final resolution data available by October 16, 2026.
The event consists of multiple markets, each centered on a specific player achieving a designated number of receptions or more in the Seattle vs Denver Pro Football game scheduled for October 15, 2026. For each market, if the named player records the specified number of receptions or more, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. A consistent secondary rule applies across all markets: if a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual number of receptions recorded during the game. These rules ensure that markets are settled accurately according to in-game performance, with specific provisions for players who do not participate in any offensive plays.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets may be more sensitive to information not yet fully priced into sportsbook lines, such as injury reports or subtle changes in team strategy. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available leading up to the game, and these differences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals, and the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price of those contracts increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by traders’ individual assessments of the likely game outcome, incorporating factors like player matchups, offensive schemes, and recent performance. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards a fair and accurate prediction of the total receptions.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for both the Seattle and Denver teams will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the league, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders will be able to view the resolved outcome and receive payouts based on their positions in the market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key wide receivers or tight ends on either team – such as injuries, changes in playing time, or unexpected illness – would likely cause price fluctuations. Weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be unfavorable for passing, could also influence trading activity. Additionally, any significant changes in offensive play-calling strategies or defensive matchups announced by either team could shift market sentiment and lead to price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on opportunities.