TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 11:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players achieve a reception longer than a set yardage threshold in an upcoming football game. Each market focuses on an individual player's performance, evaluating if they record a single play exceeding the designated distance during the match.
All markets resolve based on whether the specified player records a longest reception exceeding the stated yardage threshold in the Seattle vs Denver Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 15, 2026. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual longest reception recorded during the game. These provisions apply uniformly across all individual player markets, ensuring consistent evaluation of each participant's performance under the same conditions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own insights. If a significant number of traders believe a player is more likely to have a long reception than sportsbooks suggest, the price for that player will decrease, indicating higher implied probability. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts before the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player having the longest reception. As more people buy a contract for a specific player, the price of that contract increases, and the implied probability of that outcome decreases. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all traders participating in the market, creating a dynamic and real-time estimation of the likelihood of each player achieving the longest reception. This differs from fixed-odds betting where the sportsbook sets the price upfront.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest reception, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contract. The official NFL game statistics will be used to verify the longest reception, and the outcome will be based on the official game results. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process for this market.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or adjustments to team strategies could all impact the perceived likelihood of a player having a long reception. Unexpected announcements about player availability or changes in offensive play-calling could also cause significant shifts in the market. Additionally, any late-breaking news or analysis from sports analysts could sway trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations in this market.