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420,368
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Oct 15, 11:39 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the performance of quarterback Bo Nix in an upcoming football game between Seattle and Denver. They evaluate whether Nix achieves specific passing yard thresholds during the full match, including any overtime periods. The outcomes depend solely on Nix's actual statistics from the game.
Each market resolves to Yes if Bo Nix achieves a specified passing yard threshold in the full game, including overtime, and No otherwise. All contracts are designated as protected: if Nix participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless he meets the yardage requirement, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If Nix participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists, it may indicate that the market perceives information differently than sportsbooks, or that one venue has a more informed or active trading base. It’s common to see the market odds move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available closer to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yard totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective beliefs of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price tends to converge towards what the market believes is the most likely outcome. The current price of a contract represents the probability of the actual passing yards falling within the range that contract covers. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and trading accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yard totals for the Seattle versus Denver game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yard count will be sourced from official NFL data and used to determine which contracts payout. The contracts corresponding to the actual total passing yards will settle at 100, while all other contracts will settle to zero. Traders will receive or owe the difference between their entry price and the settlement price for each contract they hold.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to the game. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict strong winds or heavy rain, could also impact the expected passing yard totals. Late-breaking news about defensive strategies or changes in coaching personnel could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could signal a change in expectations and move the market accordingly.