TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 11:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi predicts whether Sam Darnold will achieve 150+ passing yards in the Seattle vs Denver Pro Football game. Currently, the probability of Sam Darnold exceeding 150 passing yards is 99.0%. The market will resolve based on Bo Nix’s passing yardage in the game, as determined by official game statistics. Keep a close watch on the game itself, scheduled for October 15, 2026, as the outcome hinges on player performance during that contest and will resolve by October 16, 2026.
All markets in this event evaluate whether Bo Nix achieves specified passing yard thresholds (ranging from 150+ to 325+) in the Seattle vs Denver Pro Football game scheduled for October 15, 2026. Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if Nix meets or exceeds its particular yardage requirement during the game. A consistent secondary rule applies across all markets: if Nix is listed as active for the game but does not take any snaps, all markets settle at their fair market price determined before kickoff. However, once Nix takes at least one snap—regardless of whether any individual play is nullified by penalty—the markets resolve strictly based on the total passing yards he records during the game. This rule ensures that markets are resolved objectively based on actual performance once Nix participates in the game, while protecting against uncertainty when a player is present but does not play.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and internal analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price of that outcome will move accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. This difference can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on their own analysis and expectations, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism. The more a particular outcome is bought, the higher its price rises, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of various passing yard totals.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yard totals for the Seattle versus Denver game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yards achieved by both teams will be used to determine which contracts pay out and at what value. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to see the final results and any payouts on Kalshi following the game's completion.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, updates on team strategies or play-calling tendencies, as reported by credible sources, could influence traders' assessments. Unexpected developments in team dynamics or coaching decisions could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.