TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 11:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on how many passing touchdowns each starting quarterback achieves. It allows participants to speculate on whether a player will reach certain benchmarks during the match. The outcome depends entirely on the players' in-game success in scoring through the air.
All markets in this event resolve based on the number of passing touchdowns recorded by either Bo Nix or Sam Darnold in the Seattle vs Denver Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 15, 2026. For any market, if the relevant quarterback is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the total passing touchdowns they record during the game. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., 1+, 2+, 3+, or 4+ touchdowns), and if the quarterback meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. These rules apply independently to both quarterbacks across their respective markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. When discrepancies appear, they can signal potential value for sophisticated bettors who understand both the market dynamics and the underlying event. It’s common to see this market incorporate information faster than traditional odds, especially as new developments emerge.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders bid to buy and offer to sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards a fair value, representing the aggregated prediction. The current price indicates the cost to take a position on a specific number of passing touchdowns, and it fluctuates based on supply and demand. Traders aim to profit by correctly anticipating the final outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final number of passing touchdowns scored by each team during the Seattle vs Denver game will determine the winning contracts. The official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be used to verify the outcome. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data, ensuring a fair and accurate settlement for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market leading up to game day. Any news regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks, wide receivers, or offensive linemen on either the Seahawks or the Broncos would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor passing or running offenses, could also shift expectations. Finally, late-breaking reports about team strategies or coaching decisions might prompt traders to reassess the probabilities, impacting the volume and prices within this market.