TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 11:16 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing performance metrics for quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between Seattle and Denver. It focuses on the number of successful passes each quarterback completes during the match, with different thresholds defining various outcomes.
All markets in this event resolve based on the number of passing completions achieved by specified quarterbacks during the Seattle vs Denver Professional Football game scheduled for October 15, 2026. For each market, if the named quarterback records the specified number of passing completions or more, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly across all markets: if a quarterback is active for the team but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether those plays are nullified by penalties—the market settles strictly based on the actual number of passing completions recorded during the game. These provisions ensure fair resolution even in cases of limited playing time or unusual game circumstances, while emphasizing that resolution is solely contingent on documented in-game performance metrics.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, as they aggregate the knowledge and insights of a diverse group of traders. While sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. Discrepancies can arise due to differing incentives and information sources. If you find a significant difference between the implied probability on Kalshi and the odds offered by sportsbooks, it could indicate an opportunity for value betting or trading, depending on your conviction about the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing completion totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer a contract's price is to 100, the higher the market's confidence that the corresponding completion total will happen. Conversely, a price closer to 0 indicates low confidence. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing completion total from the Seattle vs Denver game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders who correctly predicted the passing completions will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor the game and any potential factors that could influence the final completion count as the game approaches.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers on either the Seahawks or the Broncos would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to affect the passing game, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could also move the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments could influence traders' expectations. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on passing completions is crucial for informed trading in this market.