TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 10:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing attempts made by specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between Seattle and Denver. The outcome depends on whether predetermined thresholds of passing attempts are met by the named players during the contest. Settlement is based on official game statistics once the match concludes.
All markets in this event resolve based on the total passing attempts recorded by specified quarterbacks—Bo Nix or Sam Darnold—during the Seattle vs Denver Pro Football game scheduled for October 15, 2026. For each market, a specific threshold (e.g., 25+, 30+, 35+, or 40+ passing attempts) must be met or exceeded by the designated quarterback for the market to settle as 'Yes'; otherwise, it settles as 'No'. If a named quarterback is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at its fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly according to the actual number of passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets in this event, ensuring consistent evaluation of outcomes based on in-game performance.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing or overvaluing a particular outcome, the price on Kalshi will adjust accordingly. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate forecasters of event outcomes than traditional betting venues, though discrepancies can certainly exist based on differing information and risk assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit from correctly anticipating the event's outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of various passing attempt totals in the Seahawks vs Broncos game.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing attempt count for the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official game statistics recorded by a recognized sports data provider. The exact passing attempts will be used to determine which contracts pay out, and the resolution process will ensure a transparent and accurate outcome for all participants in this market on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding quarterback injuries to key players on either the Seahawks or the Broncos would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact expectations. Additionally, late-breaking reports about team strategies or defensive adjustments could shift the market. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi from informed traders could also signal a change in sentiment and cause the price to move.