TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 11:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event evaluates individual player and team defensive performance in a specific football game, determining if certain athletes or units surpass predetermined fantasy point thresholds using a standardized scoring system.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points scored by specified players or teams during the full game (including overtime) between Seattle and Denver on October 15, 2026, using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system. Each primary rule defines a threshold above which the market resolves to 'Yes'. If a player does not participate or lacks a fantasy-point value assigned by Sleeper, they are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied. The scoring system awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams contributions as detailed in the provided format, including specific values for yards, touchdowns, interceptions, field goals, sacks, and defensive performances.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when there's significant public interest. However, sportsbook odds can be a useful benchmark for understanding where the broader market initially places its expectations for the Seattle vs Denver game. It’s common to see discrepancies as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of that contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the expected fantasy point totals.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point totals for players from both Seattle and Denver will be tallied from official sources, and the market will settle based on which outcome—the total fantasy points scored—aligns with the contract purchased. The resolution process ensures an objective determination of the result, relying on publicly available data to verify the final scores and determine the winning contracts. Traders should monitor official sources as the game progresses to understand how the outcome is unfolding.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes in player status for either Seattle or Denver would likely cause substantial movement. Unexpected weather conditions impacting the game could also shift expectations. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could influence traders' assessments. Finally, overall public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators can contribute to price fluctuations as people react to new information and adjust their predictions about the final fantasy point totals.