TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 11:36 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets allow participants to bet on the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Seattle and Denver. Payouts are directly tied to the players' fantasy points scored during the game, calculated using a standardized points-per-reception formula. The structure ensures that returns scale with individual player productivity.
Each market operates as a scalar payout model where Yes contracts pay $0.01 per PPR fantasy point scored by the designated player during the specified game, rounded to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capped between $0.00 and $1.00. The No contracts pay the remainder of $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to contract holdings, meaning larger positions receive correspondingly larger absolute payouts. If Sleeper fails to assign a fantasy-point total for the player in the specified week, the player is considered to have scored zero points, resulting in a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts and $1.00 for No contracts. All calculations and resolutions rely exclusively on Sleeper's official weekly PPR fantasy-point totals for the game originally scheduled for October 15, 2026.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the likely outcome. If a significant discrepancy emerges, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both the prediction market and a sportsbook. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be perfectly accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly liquid and efficient market, providing a real-time gauge of expectations surrounding the Seattle vs Denver fantasy matchup.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final fantasy point totals for players from Seattle and Denver, as calculated by a major fantasy sports provider. The market will determine which team’s players accumulate more fantasy points, and that will be the settled result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future markets.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Unexpected injuries to key players on either the Seattle or Denver roster would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. News regarding player matchups, coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any major upsets or surprising performances in other games leading up to the event could indirectly affect expectations and trading activity within this market. Monitoring these signals is crucial for informed trading.