TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 10:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Seattle or Denver during the second quarter of their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between Seattle and Denver exclusively during the second quarter of play in their game scheduled for October 15, 2026. For markets where Seattle is the favored team to win by a specified margin (ranging from 1.5 to 10.5 points), the market resolves to 'Yes' only if Seattle's lead at the end of the second quarter exceeds that threshold. Conversely, for markets where Denver is the favored team to win by a specified margin (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points), the market resolves to 'Yes' only if Denver's lead at the end of the second quarter exceeds that threshold. No points scored in any other quarter contribute toward these resolutions. All markets operate independently, meaning each evaluates its specific threshold without regard to the outcomes of other markets.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives not immediately captured by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professionals, this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs, potentially leading to different probabilities. It’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, but as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi may converge with those offered by sportsbooks, especially if the consensus view solidifies. However, prediction markets can sometimes offer more favorable odds, particularly for less-publicized outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the 2nd quarter of the Seattle versus Denver game will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics available from trusted sports data providers. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual result. It’s important to monitor the event closely as it approaches to understand any potential factors influencing the outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Seattle or Denver teams would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might prompt traders to reassess their predictions. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media and sports news, can also play a role, even if it doesn't directly correlate with objective factors.