TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 10:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the outcome of an NHL hockey game between Seattle and Calgary, focusing on the margin of victory. It determines whether either team wins by a specific number of goals, reflecting the competitive balance and performance of both teams in the match.
The markets resolve based on whether Seattle or Calgary wins the NHL game scheduled for October 30, 2026, by a specified goal margin. If Calgary wins by more than 2.5 goals or more than 1.5 goals, the relevant market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Seattle wins by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's actual commencement.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a broader range of information and participant perspectives than sportsbook odds, which are often set by a smaller group of experts. Sportsbooks may incorporate their own biases or risk assessments, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. However, it's common to see correlation between the two, especially as the event approaches. Discrepancies can arise due to differing levels of liquidity or varying interpretations of relevant information, offering potential arbitrage opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Seattle vs Calgary spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards a fair and efficient estimate of the spread's likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Seattle vs Calgary game, as reported by a reputable sports data provider. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the final price of the contracts they held, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could influence the Seattle vs Calgary spread between now and resolution. Key injuries to star players on either team would likely have a significant impact, as would any changes in coaching strategies or team dynamics. Unexpected news regarding player availability, weather conditions, or even team morale could also shift expectations. Furthermore, any major upsets in other relevant games could indirectly affect the perceived strength of each team, leading to adjustments in this market. Monitoring these signals is crucial for traders seeking to capitalize on changing conditions.