TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 12:30 AM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between SE Palmeiras and EC Bahia, scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "SE Palmeiras" if SE Palmeiras are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "EC Bahia" if EC Bahia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between SE Palmeiras and EC Bahia, scheduled for October 8, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "SE Palmeiras" if SE Palmeiras are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "EC Bahia" if EC Bahia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. If prediction market participants collectively believe a sportsbook’s odds are mispriced, they can create price divergence by trading in a way that adjusts the probabilities. This can lead to more accurate predictions, as the market aggregates diverse perspectives and incentives.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of each share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular team scoring first, the price of those shares increases, and the probability of that outcome rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment, offering a real-time assessment of the likelihood of either SE Palmeiras or EC Bahia breaking the deadlock first.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on which team, SE Palmeiras or EC Bahia, scores the first goal in the match. The official match records will be used to determine the winning outcome. The platform will verify the result against publicly available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries or suspensions for either SE Palmeiras or EC Bahia would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in team formations or tactical approaches could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any updates on weather conditions or pitch quality that might favor one team over the other could move the market. Even pre-match analysis from respected football commentators or analysts could sway opinions and affect trading volume in this market.