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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 11:26 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Bundesliga soccer match between Schalke and Mainz. The market will determine whether Schalke wins, Mainz wins, or the game ends in a tie within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The result is based solely on the final score at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the result of the Schalke vs Mainz professional Bundesliga soccer match originally scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Schalke wins the match within this timeframe, the 'Schalke' market resolves to Yes. If Mainz wins under the same conditions, the 'Mainz' market resolves to Yes. Should the match conclude in a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the event rules. The resolution exclusively considers the result after regular time, with no account for extra time or penalty shootout outcomes.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect information beyond what’s captured in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks typically set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially revealing insights from a wider range of data and perspectives. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on factors like team morale, player injuries, or even weather conditions. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbooks in response to new information, offering a potentially more dynamic assessment of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Schalke vs Mainz match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a mechanism to ensure that prices remain competitive and that traders can always find counterparties to execute their trades, creating a liquid and efficient market for predicting the event’s result.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Schalke vs Mainz match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The platform will rely on official sources to determine the winner or, if applicable, a draw. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective, ensuring that the market accurately reflects the real-world outcome of the event. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or settle their losing positions based on the final result.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 17, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Schalke or Mainz would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding match, could also shift market sentiment. Even external factors like weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact playing conditions, might play a role. Major announcements related to team management or coaching staff could also introduce volatility into this market.