TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin
Volume:
$3,904,610
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Bundesliga match between SC Freiburg and 1. FC Union Berlin scheduled for March 15, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the outcome (Freiburg win, Union Berlin win, or draw) based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation and postponement handling differs between platforms. Polymarket explicitly addresses cancellation with asymmetric resolution (YES for draw, NO for wins), while Kalshi omits cancellation language entirely. Postponement handling also diverges: Polymarket keeps markets open; Kalshi is silent.Hero Tip:
Monitor Bundesliga.com and official league communications for any postponement or cancellation announcements. If the match is canceled with no makeup game, expect Polymarket draw market to resolve YES while win markets resolve NO. Kalshi's cancellation protocol is undefined—contact support for clarification before trading significant volume. Postponement risk is lower (Polymarket holds open) but creates extended settlement uncertainty.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate markets: Freiburg win (YES if Freiburg wins, NO if canceled), Draw (YES if draw or if canceled, NO otherwise), Union win (YES if Union wins, NO if canceled). Postponed games remain open until completion. Resolution source: official Bundesliga statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of conclusion. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
- Kalshi: Three outcome-based markets: each resolves YES if that specific outcome occurs (Union win, Freiburg win, or Tie). No explicit cancellation, postponement, or resolution source guidance provided. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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