TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:39 PM EST
Kalshi
The SAS Championship is a prestigious golf tournament featuring a field of professional golfers competing over several rounds. The event tests players' skills across challenging courses, with the winner determined by their total score after the final round.
Contracts resolve based on whether the specified golfer wins the tournament. If the named golfer wins, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If any golfer listed in the market forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate before teeing off, all tournament winner and end-of-round leader markets resolve to No. For other markets such as finishing position, make the cut, head-to-head, and 3-ball, contracts resolve to fair market value. These rules ensure fair resolution under various scenarios, protecting participants against unexpected non-participation and maintaining market integrity.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than initial sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks set odds based on their own analysis and incorporate a profit margin, this market allows anyone to trade on their predictions. This can lead to quicker adjustments in response to new information or changing sentiment. However, it’s important to note that sportsbooks and prediction markets have different user bases and liquidity, so discrepancies can occur. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each golfer winning. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about that golfer’s chances. As more traders buy contracts for a particular golfer, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability of victory. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their assessments. This creates a real-time, fluid pricing mechanism based on supply and demand.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the SAS Championship is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official tournament results published by the PGA Tour. The contract corresponding to the winning golfer will pay out, while all other contracts will expire worthless. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand when the market is officially settled. This ensures a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding golfer injuries, changes in form during practice rounds, or weather forecasts predicting challenging conditions could all shift probabilities. Unexpected withdrawals from key contenders would also likely cause substantial movement. Furthermore, live performance during the tournament itself – early leaderboard positions, impressive shots, or notable mistakes – will undoubtedly influence trading activity and adjust the odds. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.