TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:32 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams competing in the Eliteserien league. The result is determined solely by the final score after the regulation 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Markets will resolve based on whether one team secures a victory or if the game ends level.
The event covers three possible outcomes of the Sarpsborg vs Rosenborg Eliteserien soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026: a win for Sarpsborg, a win for Rosenborg, or a tie. Each market resolves based on the result after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty shootouts. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The platform explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks initially set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the views of many independent traders. If a significant number of informed bettors believe a sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate, they can express that view by trading on Kalshi, potentially causing the prediction market price to diverge. It’s common to see prediction markets as more accurate forecasts, especially closer to the event, as they incorporate more information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts for a particular result, the price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate assessments, as profitable trades depend on correctly predicting the outcome of the Sarpsborg vs Rosenborg match.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Sarpsborg vs Rosenborg match—which team wins or if the match ends in a draw—will determine the settlement of contracts on Kalshi. All contracts will be settled based on the official result declared by the governing sports authority. Traders will receive payouts based on the final outcome and the price they paid for their contracts.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market before Oct 18, 2026. Key injuries to star players on either Sarpsborg or Rosenborg would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding match, could also impact trader sentiment. Even weather forecasts, particularly if severe conditions are predicted, might affect the perceived likelihood of different outcomes. Any news related to team morale, coaching changes, or potential controversies could also contribute to price movement.