TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a professional soccer match between Sao Bernardo and Criciuma, specifically regarding the margin of victory for either team. The resolution depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold within regular time, excluding extra time or penalties.
The event determines whether either Sao Bernardo or Criciuma secures a victory by a specified margin of goals in their Brasileiro Serie B match scheduled for October 18, 2026. The match outcome is assessed after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty shootouts. Four distinct outcome thresholds are evaluated: Sao Bernardo winning by more than 2.5 goals, Sao Bernardo winning by more than 1.5 goals, Criciuma winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Criciuma winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any market that meets its respective condition resolves to 'Yes,' while all others resolve to 'No.' The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. Therefore, you may find discrepancies between the implied probabilities in this market and those offered by sportsbooks. These differences can arise from varying information sources, biases, or simply differing interpretations of the same data. It’s valuable to compare both to form a well-rounded view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a market maker system to ensure there are always bids and asks available, facilitating continuous trading. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all traders participating in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Sao Bernardo vs Criciuma match, specifically the final spread. This means the difference in points between the two teams will be used to determine which side of the market is the winner. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will be paid out accordingly.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market leading up to Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected coaching decisions could significantly shift market sentiment. Weather conditions on the day of the match could also play a role, potentially favoring one team over the other. Furthermore, public perception and media coverage surrounding the teams’ performance could impact trading activity. Unexpected upsets in other related matches or broader trends in the league could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.