TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 10:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead over their opponent by a specific number of goals. The outcome depends purely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various winning margins for the Santos vs Bahia professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 24, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are excluded. Four distinct outcome thresholds are considered: Santos winning by more than 2.5 goals, Santos winning by more than 1.5 goals, Bahia winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Bahia winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold represents a separate condition under which the respective market would resolve to 'Yes.' The event operates independently of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or breaking news. Analyzing these differences can be insightful, as the market may incorporate information not yet fully priced into sportsbook lines, or conversely, may be slower to react to certain developments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Santos vs Bahia match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate beliefs may lose money. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a market that accurately reflects the collective intelligence of its participants.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Santos vs Bahia match, as officially reported by a recognized sports data provider. The market will determine which outcome – a Santos win, a Bahia win, or a draw – occurred according to the official results, and contracts will be settled accordingly. Traders will be able to see the final result and their payout based on their positions in the market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Santos or Bahia would likely cause movement. Changes in team form, such as unexpected wins or losses in preceding matches, could also shift expectations. Even external factors like weather conditions or changes in coaching staff could influence trader sentiment. Major announcements about team strategy or tactical changes could also play a role in how this market evolves leading up to the match.