TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 10:11 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match between two teams competing in a major Brazilian league. The resolution depends solely on the result after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. It provides a way to assess the likelihood of each possible result based on current information and expectations.
The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the designated Brasileiro Serie A soccer match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty shootout outcomes. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the specified team wins the match within regular time, while a tie resolves the 'Tie' market positively. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under exceptional circumstances.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, opportunities for arbitrage may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both venues. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets and sportsbooks have different costs and risk profiles, which can influence their odds.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome’s probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. The market depth, or the number of buy and sell orders at different price levels, indicates how strongly traders feel about each outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a transparent and efficient way to forecast the result of the Santos vs Bahia match.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Santos vs Bahia match, as reported by a widely recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome wins. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for losing outcomes will not.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Santos or Bahia would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent match, could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even pre-match tactical announcements from the managers, could also move the market. Overall, any information that alters the perceived probability of either team winning is likely to affect trading activity.