TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 9:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Santos Laguna will win their Liga MX soccer match against Queretaro. Currently, Kalshi gives Santos Laguna a win probability of 89.0%, while a tie is priced at 9.0%. The market will resolve based on the result of the game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official game outcome. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the market resolves based on the final result following the full 90 minutes plus stoppage time on October 17, 2026.
The event involves determining the winner of a professional Liga MX soccer match between Santos Laguna and Queretaro scheduled for October 17, 2026, based solely on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for Santos Laguna, a win for Queretaro, or a tie. Each outcome has a corresponding market that resolves to 'Yes' if that specific result occurs. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The resolution explicitly excludes extra time and penalty shootout results, focusing only on the standard match duration.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, being driven by the collective intelligence of traders, tends to reflect more purely the probabilities as perceived by the crowd. However, discrepancies can occur due to differing opinions, information available to each group, or simply variations in market participants. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, especially as the event draws closer.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing the possible outcomes of the Santos Laguna vs Queretaro match. The price of each contract reflects the market's probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations, differing from fixed-odds betting found elsewhere. The current market reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Santos Laguna vs Queretaro match as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome is the winner. Any disputes regarding the official result will be handled according to Kalshi’s standard procedures, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Santos Laguna or Queretaro would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact the perceived probabilities. Pre-match analysis from sports analysts and public polls can also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements related to the match, such as a change in venue or a suspension of a player, would almost certainly lead to shifts in the market prices as traders react to the new information.