TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:36 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Donoso and Bruno Fernandez in the Santa Cruz 2, Bolivia, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Donoso' if Nicolas Donoso advances against Bruno Fernandez. This market will resolve to 'Bruno Fernandez' if Bruno Fernandez advances against Nicolas Donoso. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Donoso and Bruno Fernandez in the Santa Cruz 2, Bolivia, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Donoso' if Nicolas Donoso advances against Bruno Fernandez. This market will resolve to 'Bruno Fernandez' if Bruno Fernandez advances against Nicolas Donoso. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin, while this market allows participants to directly assess probabilities. If a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the event, or that new information hasn't yet been fully incorporated into sportsbook lines. It's important to consider both when forming your own assessment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that price movements are driven entirely by supply and demand within the Polymarket market, and are not influenced by external factors or other venues.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Nicolas Donoso vs Bruno Fernandez match, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on their recent performance could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players might also impact expectations. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Polymarket could also cause noticeable price movements, as the market reacts to new information or changing opinions about the likely winner of the Donoso vs Fernandez match.