TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 6:34 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Luis Guto Miguel and Murkel Dellien in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luis Guto Miguel' if Luis Guto Miguel advances against Murkel Dellien. This market will resolve to 'Murkel Dellien' if Murkel Dellien advances against Luis Guto Miguel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Luis Guto Miguel and Murkel Dellien in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luis Guto Miguel' if Luis Guto Miguel advances against Murkel Dellien. This market will resolve to 'Murkel Dellien' if Murkel Dellien advances against Luis Guto Miguel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own research and insights. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before a significant amount of volume accumulates. These differences can stem from varying levels of information, biases, or simply differing interpretations of the event’s probabilities.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event. The more shares purchased for a particular outcome, the higher its price becomes, indicating increased confidence in its occurrence.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Dellien match, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The outcome will be determined by which player wins the match as per standard tennis scoring rules. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even significant shifts in public perception could all impact the odds. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or updates on their recent performance, might also cause traders to reassess their positions. Any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning is likely to generate increased volume and price fluctuations in this market.