TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Santa Cruz 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Manuel La Serna Set 2 O/U 8.5
- Polymarket
Santa Cruz 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Manuel La Serna Set 2 O/U 8.5 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 15, 2026
Closed: Oct 15, 4:07 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks which player will win Set 2 of the tennis match between Guido Justo and Juan Manuel La Serna in the Santa Cruz 2 tournament. Currently, Polymarket gives Guido Justo a 100.0% probability of winning Set 2. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the originally scheduled match time of October 14, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, as that is when the context for this market begins and will determine the outcome.
This market refers to the tennis match between Guido Justo and Juan Manuel La Serna in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Guido Justo' if Guido Justo advances against Juan Manuel La Serna. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel La Serna' if Juan Manuel La Serna advances against Guido Justo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or promotional offers. Sportsbooks may adjust their lines based on betting action and public perception, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome of the Justo vs La Serna fight. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of data and perspectives than traditional bookmakers.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome of the Justo vs La Serna fight. The price of each share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among participants regarding the potential results of the fight.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Justo vs La Serna fight as declared by the relevant boxing authorities. The platform will determine the winning outcome based on publicly available information and established procedures. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future markets based on the verified result.
Several factors could influence the price action in this market leading up to Oct 21, 2026. News regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the fight's location or rules could also have an impact. Additionally, any significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, could lead to changes in the odds as traders adjust their positions based on the latest information available about the Justo vs La Serna fight.