TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 11:39 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Guido Justo and Arklon Del Pino in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 3:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Guido Justo' if Guido Justo advances against Arklon Del Pino. This market will resolve to 'Arklon Del Pino' if Arklon Del Pino advances against Guido Justo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Guido Justo and Arklon Del Pino in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 3:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Guido Justo' if Guido Justo advances against Arklon Del Pino. This market will resolve to 'Arklon Del Pino' if Arklon Del Pino advances against Guido Justo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market relies on the opinions of individuals willing to put their capital at risk. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially when there's significant public interest or disagreement about the likely outcome. These differences can arise from varying levels of information, biases, or simply differing interpretations of the available data. Examining these discrepancies can be insightful for both bettors and market participants.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic process ensures that the market price constantly adjusts to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. The market’s efficiency depends on the volume of trading and the number of informed participants.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Guido Justo vs Arklon Del Pino fight, as declared by the relevant sporting authority. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Any disputes or ambiguities will be addressed according to the platform’s established procedures. The final outcome will determine which shares pay out and at what value, based on the market price at the time of resolution.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to either fighter, changes in their training regimens, or updates on their physical condition would likely cause price fluctuations. Public statements from the fighters or their teams, as well as expert analysis and predictions, could also influence market sentiment. Unexpected developments in the lead-up to the fight, such as changes in venue or rules, could also introduce volatility. Increased media coverage or social media buzz surrounding the event may also drive trading volume and price movements in this market.