TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 09d:21h:07m
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In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between San Marino and Belarus, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "San Marino" if San Marino score more goals than Belarus in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if San Marino and Belarus score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Belarus" if Belarus score more goals than San Marino in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game has an official result but the second half was not completed, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "Draw".
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between San Marino and Belarus, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "San Marino" if San Marino score more goals than Belarus in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if San Marino and Belarus score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Belarus" if Belarus score more goals than San Marino in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game has an official result but the second half was not completed, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "Draw".
Comparing prediction market odds to sportsbook odds reveals how the wisdom of the crowd differs from professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market reflects the collective beliefs of numerous individual traders. Often, prediction markets can offer more accurate forecasts, especially when information is dispersed or difficult to quantify. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and frequently updated, providing a convenient benchmark. Discrepancies between the two can present opportunities for arbitrage, though transaction costs must be considered.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. As more shares are traded for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand among traders on Polymarket, and is not influenced by external factors or predetermined values.
This market resolves around Nov 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official result of the San Marino vs. Belarus second half as reported by the governing football association. The platform will verify the result against reliable sources to ensure accuracy. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will receive a payout equivalent to 1 USDC per share, while those holding shares in losing outcomes will receive nothing.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or tactical adjustments announced before the second half could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected events during the first half, such as red cards or early goals, will also likely cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, broader factors like weather conditions or even public perception of team morale could play a role. Monitoring news sources and social media for relevant updates will be crucial for understanding potential market movements before Nov 12, 2026.