TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 10:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between San Luis and Queretaro, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the San Luis versus Queretaro Liga MX soccer match scheduled for October 20, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are disregarded. Four distinct outcome thresholds are considered: San Luis winning by more than 2.5 goals, San Luis winning by more than 1.5 goals, Queretaro winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Queretaro winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold represents a separate market that resolves to 'Yes' if the actual result meets or exceeds its specified margin of victory for the corresponding team. The governing rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the Liga MX league, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective rights holders.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Comparing the odds can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, though it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, not guarantees.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the San Luis vs Queretaro match spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived probability of a particular outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs align with the eventual result. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the San Luis vs Queretaro match will be used to determine the winning contracts. This resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will settle.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the San Luis or Queretaro teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements related to the match, such as a change in venue or starting lineup, could also cause volatility. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the perceived probability of different outcomes.