TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 10:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming NHL game between San Jose and Toronto. It focuses on how many goals the winning team scores beyond the losing team, with different thresholds defining various outcomes. The event captures the competitive balance and performance of both teams on the specified date.
The event consists of four primary rules that collectively determine the outcome based on the goal differential in the San Jose vs Toronto NHL game scheduled for October 19, 2026. If Toronto wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. If Toronto wins by more than 1.5 goals (but not exceeding 2.5), the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if San Jose wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if San Jose wins by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the result is still applied; if the game is cancelled or does not start within that window, all markets resolve to a fair price.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the wisdom of the crowd on Kalshi, aims to reflect the true probability of the spread outcome as perceived by traders. While sportsbooks may initially set lines based on power rankings and expert analysis, this market's odds evolve dynamically with each trade, potentially revealing insights that differ from initial sportsbook offerings. It's a useful comparison point for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a market-making system to ensure liquidity and facilitate trading, allowing participants to express their views on the San Jose vs Toronto spread and profit from correctly anticipating the result. This dynamic pricing mechanism is central to how Kalshi operates.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the San Jose vs Toronto game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of the sport, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and payout calculations on Kalshi shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the San Jose or Toronto teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team performance, coaching decisions, or even weather conditions could also shift market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability or strategic changes leading up to the game are also potential catalysts. Monitoring these signals and analyzing their potential impact on the spread is crucial for traders looking to capitalize on market fluctuations.