TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 7:11 PM EST
Kalshi
This matchup between San Jose and Salt Lake will test the winning margin capabilities of both teams. Bettors and fans will be especially interested in the potential for a dominant performance, with significant point differentials indicating either a strong offensive display or a weak defense.
The event determines whether San Jose or Salt Lake achieves a win by a margin exceeding specified goal differences in the professional MLS soccer game scheduled for Oct 31, 2026. The match outcome is evaluated after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Markets resolve to Yes if San Jose wins by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or if Salt Lake wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, as per the market title; otherwise, they resolve to No. The result is based on the official full-time score recorded by the MLS.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs about the game's outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook has mispriced the spread. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be accurate. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view of expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the actual spread will be above or below the listed value. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new insights and adjust to changing circumstances surrounding the San Jose vs Salt Lake game.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the San Jose vs Salt Lake game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result published by the league, representing the actual difference in scores between the two teams. Traders who correctly predicted whether the actual spread would be above or below the market’s price will receive a payout based on their contract’s value at resolution. The final score will determine the winning side of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game takes place. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the San Jose or Salt Lake teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in coaching strategies, weather forecasts, or even public sentiment expressed through polls and media coverage could also impact trader behavior. Unexpected news about team morale or internal conflicts could also shift expectations. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market and capitalize on new information as it emerges.