TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 12:38 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance gap between San Jose and Nashville in their upcoming MLS soccer match. It focuses on the margin of victory for either team, highlighting different threshold levels for success. The outcomes depend solely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various goal-differential scenarios in the San Jose vs Nashville MLS soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026. All markets resolve based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: San Jose winning by more than 2.5 goals, San Jose winning by more than 1.5 goals, Nashville winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Nashville winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold represents a specific measure of dominance by either team. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the MLS or the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners. The event categorizes each market under 'Sports,' using 'Yes' for achievement of the stated goal-differential condition and implicitly 'No' for all other scoreline results.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s prices are driven purely by individuals willing to buy or sell based on their own analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the prices here will move accordingly, potentially offering an edge. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public perception shifts regarding the teams involved.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction format. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether San Jose will cover the spread against Nashville. As more traders participate, the price of these contracts fluctuates, reflecting the collective probability assigned to that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the implied probability of the event occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final score differential between San Jose and Nashville will be compared to the spread to determine which side covered. The result will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective determination of the winner. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be paid out according to the contract price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either San Jose or Nashville would likely cause significant movement. Changes in goaltending matchups, coaching decisions, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected shifts in public opinion, fueled by analysis from sports commentators or updated statistical models, can also drive price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on the game's outcome is key to understanding how this market might evolve.