TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 12:41 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance gap between San Jose and Colorado in an upcoming MLS soccer match. It focuses on the margin of victory for either team, reflecting how decisively one side might dominate the other. Outcomes are determined by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The markets collectively evaluate different margins of victory in the San Jose vs Colorado MLS match scheduled for October 28, 2026. All outcomes are determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. A 'Yes' resolution occurs if San Jose wins by more than 2.5 goals, San Jose wins by more than 1.5 goals, Colorado wins by more than 1.5 goals, or Colorado wins by more than 2.5 goals. Each rule specifies a distinct threshold for victory margins, allowing participants to bet on varying degrees of dominance by either team. The secondary rules clarify that Kalshi has no official affiliation with the MLS and that all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs about the game's outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when public opinion shifts. Examining these differences can provide insights into where the crowd believes sportsbooks might be mispricing the probability of a particular result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the San Jose vs Colorado spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand from traders on Kalshi, and is not influenced by external factors or other prediction markets.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by official game statistics, and the market will settle based on whether the actual spread falls above or below the contract price. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any significant news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather forecasts could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team dynamics or key player performance could also lead to price fluctuations. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi can quickly impact the market, as can shifts in public perception reflected in polls or expert analyses. Monitoring these signals can help traders make informed decisions.