TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:49 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks individual player performance in a specific football game, focusing on whether certain players achieve predetermined rushing yard thresholds. Each market evaluates a different player's ability to meet or exceed a set number of rushing yards during the match. Outcomes are determined solely by the players' on-field statistics.
All markets resolve based on whether specified players record the designated rushing yard thresholds in the San Francisco vs Seattle professional football game scheduled for Oct 11, 2026. If a player is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before game start. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if nullified by penalty—the market settles based strictly on the rushing yards they record during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent evaluation of player performance against the stated thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different type of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. This often leads to prediction market prices being more accurate, especially when incorporating information not yet fully reflected in sportsbook lines. However, sportsbook odds can still provide a useful benchmark for comparison, and significant discrepancies may indicate areas where the market perceives an edge or disagreement with conventional wisdom. It’s important to consider both when forming your own prediction.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals, and the price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions as the event approaches. The current price reflects the collective intelligence of all participants trading in the market.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official rushing yard totals for the San Francisco and Seattle game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will be used to determine the total rushing yards achieved by both teams, and that number will dictate the settlement of contracts traded in this market. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would any changes to the teams’ offensive strategies or weather forecasts for the game. Unexpected news regarding coaching decisions or defensive matchups could also shift the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking information about player availability or performance expectations will likely influence trading activity and price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to capitalize on opportunities as they arise.