TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:51 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players from both teams achieve a longest reception exceeding set yardage thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market focuses on an individual player's performance, evaluating if their longest catch goes beyond a predetermined yardage mark.
The event evaluates multiple individual player markets to determine if each specified player records a longest reception exceeding their respective yardage thresholds during the San Francisco vs Seattle Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 11, 2026. For each player market, if the athlete records a reception longer than the stated threshold, that market resolves to Yes. If a player is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolution depends solely on whether their longest reception in the game exceeds the specified yardage. All markets operate independently, with each player's performance assessed separately against their individual thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. While sportsbooks may initially have an edge due to specialized information, the continuous trading in this market can lead to surprisingly accurate forecasts as new information becomes available and is incorporated into the prices.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a player achieving the longest reception. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, injuries, and other factors, leading to dynamic price movements. This creates a real-time assessment of probabilities driven by market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest reception in the specified game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning outcome. The official NFL game statistics will be used to determine the longest reception, and the market will settle based on that verified data. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results and confirmation of the resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift the odds. A key player being ruled out would likely increase the chances of other players, while favorable matchups could boost specific players’ probabilities. Unexpected announcements about playing time or formations could also cause substantial movement. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about team news will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on potential shifts in this market.