TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$185,665,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,833,875,329
407,365
Markets across
40,470
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,365
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing yard milestones for specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game. Each market focuses on whether a player reaches a particular yardage threshold during the match. The outcomes depend entirely on the players' performance in the game.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified quarterback achieves the designated passing yard threshold in the San Francisco vs Seattle Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 11, 2026. If the quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles according to the actual passing yards recorded during the game. All markets are independent, with each threshold (e.g., 150+, 175+, etc.) representing a separate condition for resolution. The markets cover two quarterbacks, Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy, each with multiple escalating yardage thresholds. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or promotional offers. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to openly buy and sell their predictions. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook's line is inaccurate, they can drive the price on Kalshi in the opposite direction, creating a divergence. It's common to see prediction markets outperform traditional odds, especially as the event approaches and more information is incorporated.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders, and the market price reflects the highest buy order and the lowest sell order. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price represents the probability of a particular outcome occurring, scaled to a value between 0 and 100. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price fluctuates, providing a real-time assessment of the expected passing yards. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market remains responsive to changing conditions and reflects the collective intelligence of the participants.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yards total from the San Francisco versus Seattle game, as reported by official league sources, will determine the outcome. The market will settle to 100 for the outcome that matches the actual passing yards, and 0 for all other outcomes. Traders who correctly predicted the passing yards total will receive a payout based on the market price at the time of their trade.
Several factors could influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they indicate strong winds or heavy rain, could also impact the expected passing yards. Furthermore, late-breaking reports about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift trader sentiment. Even general public perception, as reflected in polls or analyst predictions, can contribute to fluctuations in this market, as traders react to the evolving narrative surrounding the game.