TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:15 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy in an upcoming football game between San Francisco and Seattle. The outcomes depend on how many passing touchdowns each quarterback throws during the match, with different thresholds defining various market resolutions.
The markets resolve based on the number of passing touchdowns thrown by either Sam Darnold or Brock Purdy in the specified game. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual passing touchdowns recorded during the game. All markets are independent and evaluate different touchdown thresholds for each quarterback, meaning each market has its own resolution criteria based on the specific number of touchdowns required.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their analysis and aim to balance betting action, while this market allows participants to freely express their beliefs about the likelihood of various outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, analytical approaches, or simply the collective intelligence of traders participating in this market. It's common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, shows the available buy and sell orders at various price points, providing insight into potential price movements and trading opportunities for the NFL passing touchdowns market.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent process. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game and verification of the official results, allowing for a clear understanding of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding key player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or adjustments to team strategies could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about quarterback availability or defensive matchups are likely to cause significant price movements. Additionally, any updates from reliable sources regarding the teams’ game plans or offensive approaches could impact the perceived probabilities of different outcomes in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on potential opportunities.