TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:42 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets link financial outcomes to the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between San Francisco and Seattle. Payouts are determined by how many fantasy points each player scores, with calculations based on a standardized scoring system. The structure ensures that potential earnings scale directly with individual player productivity during the match.
Each market operates as a scalar contract where the payout for Yes positions is calculated by multiplying the player's Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy points by $0.01, rounding to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capping the total between $0.00 and $1.00. The No payout is simply $1.00 minus the Yes payout. If a player earns 31.4 fantasy points, for example, the Yes payout would be $0.31 and the No payout $0.69; 32.5 points would adjust this to $0.33 Yes and $0.67 No. Negative or missing fantasy points result in a $0.00 Yes payout and a $1.00 No payout. All calculations are proportional to contract positions held, and the markets resolve based on official weekly fantasy totals provided by Sleeper. These rules apply uniformly across all player-specific markets for the game.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on individuals freely trading based on their own analysis. As more information becomes available and the event draws nearer, the odds in this market often become more accurate than those offered by traditional sportsbooks. However, initial sportsbook odds can provide a useful benchmark for comparison, especially before significant trading volume occurs.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations. The current market reflects the collective beliefs of those actively trading.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final results of the San Francisco versus Seattle matchup, as officially recorded and widely reported by trusted sports news sources. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi once the event has concluded and the results have been verified. The platform will then process payouts based on the final outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in coaching strategies, or unexpected performance in preceding games could shift trader sentiment. Major weather forecasts impacting game conditions could also play a role. Furthermore, significant public or expert analysis predicting a shift in momentum could drive trading activity. Unexpected announcements or events related to either team or the broader sporting landscape could also cause the market to react, leading to price fluctuations.